217: Ken McElroy: What’s Happening with Multifamily Real Estate?

I have been on the record for a while now anticipating the “tsunami following the earthquake.” In other words, COVID-19 was a destructive economic force but the aftermath may be even worse. The theory is based on historical observations of how these things tend to play out. The problem and potential flaw in the rationale, however, is that there really isn’t a situation that is truly parallel to what we face now. When has the entire world shut down for business for months at a time before? Never. But when has a country with the economic might of the United States flooded the system with so much money and so many ways to keep businesses alive? When has a country paid some people more to be unemployed than to work? I can’t think of any time like this. Can you? The point is that beyond my predictions and those of the other armchair economists whom you may follow lies a harsh reality—none of us really know what’s going to happen. Sure that tsunami I keep talking about seems likely but it may not happen because fiscal and monetary policy do their job and an earlier-than-expected vaccine saves the day. Alternatively, the tsunami could hurt selective parts of the economy and leave others relatively unscathed. So far, in multifamily real estate, our investor club is seeing asset performance matching if not exceeding pre-COVID levels across our portfolio! Our portfolio is a very specific niche, however. We focus on working-class apartment buildings in rapidly growing red state cities such as Dallas and Phoenix with relatively low cost of living index. The details matter. Being in Texas instead of California means we don’t have to worry about “rent strikes” and courts saying how much we can charge for rent. Population growth gives a natural benefit of increased housing demand. Being in working-class housing right now means two things. First, we have a lot more people moving down from  A to B and high C class housing then we have C class tenants moving down to the depths of D class hell. Our working-class tenants do appear to be working and those who are not are receiving unemployment benefits that are exceeding their typical salaries. These unemployment benefits are more than enough in low cost of living areas to buy food and pay the rent.  Conversely, people living in the A class apartments are losing jobs and unemployment doesn’t provide them with the ability to maintain the same lifestyle. Anyway, that’s what we are seeing right now. I should add that the demand of this housing has been such that we are continuing to raise rents. Crazy, isn’t it? Anyway, the point I’m trying to make here is that when you listen to anyone right now about what’s going to happen with the economy and with real estate, you have to listen to them in a nuanced context. You also need to remember that we have no idea what further fiscal and monetary policies will be unleashed in the next few months to further mitigate the damage to businesses. Listen to everyone who is worth listening to but make sure you identify the context and do a little thinking for yourself. Now, one of the guys that we should all listen to in the area of apartment buildings is Ken McElroy. Ken is probably best known as Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad advisor on real estate. However, I listen to Ken because he is a multifamily real estate syndicator who has had a lot of success for a long time. Ken’s niche is a little different than mine. He’s an A class and new construction guy but what he has to say in the context of what’s going on right now is important for all ...